Will Israeli defense minister's exit impact Russia-Israel cooperation on Syria?
Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman’s resignation yesterday
sparked debates not only about the fate of the country's current ruling
coalition but also about the future of Israeli-Russian relations —
especially when it comes to Syria.
Born in the former Soviet Union in what is currently the Republic of
Moldova and fluent in Russian, Liberman leads the right-wing party
Yisrael Beitenu and has had a reputation as an advocate for stronger
relations with Moscow. His party is popular among Jews from the former
Soviet Union who made “aliyah” — or homecoming — to Israel in 1990s.
Liberman, a controversial politician who has frequently received serious
backlash from left-wing parties and human rights organizations for his
hateful rhetoric against Arabs, had significant success in the 2009
elections when Yisrael Beitenu won 15 seats in the Knesset and went on
to become the second largest party after Likud.
Following corruption scandals that plagued party officials, some part of
the so-called "Russian base" turned away from Yisrael Beitenu, and in
2015 it received only six seats. The program of Liberman’s party did not
include developing relations with Russia and was more focused on social
and security issues. Yet while he was Israeli minister of foreign
affairs (2009-2012, 2013-2015), one of his priorities was a more close
and trustful dialogue with Moscow.
Since 2016, when he took over as defense minister, relations with Russia
— particularly concerning Syria — became a focus of Israel's foreign
policy. His “personal diplomacy” came as an advantage in this sphere.
Just over a year ago, on Oct. 16, during a meeting with Russian Defense
Minister Sergei Shoigu, Liberman told his counterpart — first in Russian
and then in Hebrew — that Israel “values its relations with Russia for
the sincere, candid dialogue [between the two]” and added it is “the way
to solve all the problems.”
Liberman was among the most staunch critics of Iran's presence in Syria,
pushing the agenda at every encounter with his Russian counterparts. On
May 31, 2018, Liberman traveled to Moscow to discuss what he deemed
“the entrenchment of Iran and its proxies” in Syria, two weeks after
President Vladimir Putin’s remarks on the need for all foreign forces to
withdraw from the war-torn country.
However, since Liberman does not have a background in security, some
military sources claimed that the top brass has always seen him as an
“outsider." Others argue that he hasn't made any major contributions to
Israeli defense policies over his two-and-a-half years in office,
calling him a “cartoon defense minister.”
In fact, it is hard to claim that Liberman alone somehow seriously
changed the rules of engagement with the Russians. Israel's foreign
policy is in the hands of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the head of
the Likud party. Besides, during most of Netanyahu's meetings with
Putin, he has been accompanied by another Russian-speaking politician,
Minister of Jerusalem Affairs and Minister of Environmental Protection
Ze'ev Elkin.
As Minister of Defense, Liberman has been limited in his capacity to
influence the decision-making process when it comes to major issues. The
recent situation in Gaza clearly exposed this. Netanyahu managed to
avoid an unnecessary war, resulting in a lot of criticism from
hard-liners — including Liberman. In some respect, Liberman made this
decision to quit as an attempt to survive as a political figure.
According to recent polls, he does not have enough support from Israelis
to be a major player in the next election, and he is not a good
contender to beat “Mr. Security” Netanyahu — at least for now.
After Liberman’s resignation, the position of defense minister was
temporarily transferred to Netanyahu, who also holds other governmental
positions, including Minister of Foreign Affairs and Minister of Health.
However, Minister of Education, Minister of Diaspora Affairs and
HaBayit HaYehudi leader Naftali Bennett threatened to quit the coalition
if Netanyahu didn't make him defense minister. Netanyahu is at a
crossroads: to call an early election where — according to the polls —
he has a good chance of winning, or to save the coalition for letting
Bennett take the defense minister position. Neither of the two options
looks particularly appealing, and Netanyahu will have to showcase the
best of his political maneuvering.
In Russia, some pro-Israeli experts who have advocated for a stronger
response to Hamas attacks raised concerns over the departure of
Liberman. The concern is that Netanyahu’s backtracking on the operation
in Gaza may send a wrong signal to Iran and Hezbollah over Israel’s
resolve to tackle the security challenges they pose in the north of the
country. This, the argument goes, may embolden Tehran and pro-Iranian
militias, and thus create new risks for Russia’s own policies in Syria
and its relationship with Israel similar to those that occurred over
Syria’s fatal mistake in downing the Russian spy plane in mid-September
that the Russian military blamed on “Israeli provocation.”
In the broader scheme of things, relations with Russia are not being
targeted by political rivals amid the internal spat in Israeli politics.
If Bennett becomes Israel's new Defense Minister, it is unlikely to
affect relations with Moscow. Russia believes there is a consensus
throughout the Israeli political and military establishment for
maintaining a good and mutually beneficial partnership with the Kremlin
in Syria. The main issue is how to keep these relations fruitful when
both sides are looking at one another but not in one direction.
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