Nvidia Will Keep Pascal GPUs on Store Shelves After RTX Launches
Nvidia is preparing to launch new high-end GPUs, but the operative word
may be “high-end.” In previous cycles, both AMD and Nvidia have
typically led with a high-end card before debuting lower-end hardware
within a matter of months. Exactly how quickly this rollout takes place
varies from cycle to cycle — two months would be extremely quick, 12
months would be rather slow. We already knew Nvidia was doing things
differently this time around, with a simultaneous RTX 2080 and 2080 Ti
launch, but now there’s confirmation that the company is playing things
differently with its lower-end stack as well.
According to Nvidia CFO Colette Kress, the RTX 2080 and 2080
TiSEEAMAZON_ET_135 See Amazon ET commerce will exist alongside Pascal
cards like the GTX 1080 through the holiday season. At the recent Citi
2018 Global Technology Conference, Kress told the audience to expect
Pascal in-market for a while yet. “We will be selling probably for the
holiday season, both our Turing and our Pascal overall architecture.
Remember, Turing is a leap forward in terms of overall capabilities. The
performance improvement is much greater than the overall price. What
that means is you are getting for your dollar spent tremendous more
improvement.”
rtx-2080-vs-1080
This slide is nearly useless for actually estimating much about RTX 2080
performance. The addition of DLSS figures raises questions about what
AA settings were used for the 1080 and 2080 without DLSS engaged.
Whether the performance improvement will be commensurate with the price
is very much an open question. Apart from some vague slides, Nvidia has
released very little performance information and the new GPUs are
significantly more expensive than previous generations. Nvidia’s current
GTX 1080SEEAMAZON_ET_135 See Amazon ET commerce is selling regularly
for ~$469, while the new GTX 2080 will start at $700 ($800 for a
Founders Edition). The 2080 Ti, meanwhile, is now a $1200 GPU.
Performance data on ray tracing suggests that even top-end cards may
struggle to hit 60 FPS at 1080p with ray-tracing enabled.
Now, granted, the question of whether someone would rather play at 4K
with ray tracing off or 1080p with ray tracing enabled is a personal
one. Both are valid options. But what we do know, at this point, is that
Nvidia’s new GPUs are significantly more expensive than its previous,
they set new records as far as high-end pricing across the GPU stack,
and the performance gains these GPUs offer may or may not be in-line
with those increases. As always, ET recommends a wait-and-see approach
before committing to pre-orders. Any comparison of these cards will also
need to take into account the pricing they actually command rather than
MSRP. Hopefully, we won’t see a repeat of 2016, when Nvidia launched in
May and cards were still difficult to find and selling at inflated
prices four months later.
It’s not clear if Nvidia is planning to replace the 1080 and 1070
directly or if it will only keep Pascal cards in market in segments
where it hasn’t introduced a Turing replacement yet. If we had to guess,
we’d guess they’d keep the 1080 down — otherwise, Nvidia will leave a
substantial gap in its own product space.
It’s not clear if Nvidia intends to do a complete refresh around Turing.
It’s possible that Turing is a 12nm stopgap part, aligned as a high-end
chip, while a new 7nm GPU is readied for next year. This, to be clear,
is speculation on our part. But it might explain why Nvidia would launch
primarily high-end GPUs while holding off on a complete refresh. That,
and let’s face it — the company has little reason to aggressively push
Turing down the product stack. With AMD not planning a refresh cycle
this year, Turing isn’t going to have much company at the high end.
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