ANALYSIS: What Russia’s Latakia condemnation means for Israel
Russia has blamed Israel for air strikes in Syria in the past.
By Seth J. Frantzman
Russia’s harsh condemnation of what it alleged was an air strike on
Syria on Monday night indicates an escalation in Moscow’s rhetoric. This
comes after 15 Russian servicemen were killed when their IL-20 was hit
by a Syrian S-200 anti-aircraft missile that mistook it for an enemy
aircraft.
Moscow says that “Israeli pilots placed him [the IL-20] under the fire
of Syria’s air defense.” It is not in keeping with the “spirit of the
Russian-Israeli partnership. We reserve the right to adequate response.”
Russia has blamed Israel for air strikes in Syria in the past. In early
April Moscow condemned Israel, and in late April said the strikes were
unacceptable. But the April round of condemnations did not include the
level of rhetoric of the September 18 statement. This is because Russian
servicemen were not killed.
The new Moscow statement did not have to blame Jerusalem and allege
Israeli pilots put the Russians in danger. It could have blamed Syrian
air defense. Syrian air defenses are Russian-made so blaming the
equipment for making a mistake would actually be of self-critique
regarding the technology.
Also there is a sense in the statement that Moscow thinks Israel
deliberately created a complex stratagem near Latakia to purposely
confuse the air defense. Moscow alleges Israel only warned Russia via a
“hotline” one minute before the attack.
This did not give the IL-20 time to descend and land at Khmeimim, an air
base where Russia has planes. Russia also says that the airstrikes were
carried out over a French frigate stationed off the coast which fooled
air defenses into thinking cruise missiles were being fired. It says
Israel used the cover of the Russian plane as well.This indicates
several different aspects of the current situation in Latakia. It means
there are numerous Russian, Syrian, and other forces operating in close
vicinity and that any kind of attack puts the rest in danger; this was
previously known.
Russia has a naval facility and planes. Iran has alleged factories.
Turkey is nearby in the north. Western countries have naval assets off
the coast.
The recent incident illustrates that these forces don’t communicate well
together. And it indicates that air strikes on Latakia or neighboring
Hama must navigate a web of defenses and complex military systems. This
is a test of Russian and Syrian air defense.
Russia reportedly has its S-400 system in the area and these attacks appear to show Moscow is not willing to use the S-400.
Moscow is also selling the S-400 to Turkey and other buyers. This puts
Russia in a bind. If it uses this sophisticated air defense it could
escalate the conflict, but if it doesn’t use it then Syria will wonder
why it isn’t defending its own planes and assets in Syria.
For Israel this poses a challenge. Israel has warned that Iranian forces
must leave Syria. At the same time Jerusalem has good relations with
Russia and Moscow has indicated it respects Israel’s concerns about
Iranian involvement in Syria. This delicate balance now is at risk of
changing after Latakia. The death of Russian servicemen cannot be
ignored by Moscow and Russia shows that it doesn’t want to accept that
this was a terrible mistake, but rather seeing the airstrikes as
endangering Russian lives.
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